论文标题
在弹簧可预测性障碍之前，已经预测了厄尔尼诺现象
Forecasting the El Niño type well before the spring predictability barrier
论文作者
论文摘要
厄尔尼诺南部振荡（ENSO）是全球气候变化的最重要驱动力，可以触发全球各地的极端天气事件和灾难。根据最大变暖的区域，厄尔尼诺事件可以分为两种类型，即东太平洋（EP）和中太平洋事件。厄尔尼诺现象的类型对其影响有重大影响，甚至可以导致全球同一地区的干燥或潮湿条件。在这里我们表明，赤道西太平洋和中太平洋的海面温度异常（SSTA）之间的区域差$Δt_{wp-cp} $提前表明了即将到来的厄尔尼诺尼诺：当年底时，$δT_{wp-cp} $Δ{wp-cp} $ pastive是一年的事件。在1950年至今之间，EP预测的3/4和所有CP预测都是正确的。当将这种方法与先前引入的气候网络方法相结合时，我们获得了事件的发作和类型的可靠预测：在大约一年的提前时间，2/3的EP预测和所有CP预测在所见期间都是正确的。相比，组合模型的预测能力比当前的操作类型预测，平均售货时间约为1个月，应允许早期缓解措施。
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Depending on the region of maximal warming, El Niño events can be partitioned into 2 types, Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) events. The type of an El Niño has a major influence on its impact and can even lead to either dry or wet conditions in the same areas on the globe. Here we show that the zonal difference $ΔT_{WP-CP}$ between the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the equatorial western Pacific and central Pacific gives an early indication of the type of an upcoming El Niño: When at the end of a year, $ΔT_{WP-CP}$ is positive, an event in the following year will be probably an EP event, otherwise a CP event. Between 1950 and present, 3/4 of the EP forecasts and all CP forecasts are correct. When combining this approach with a previously introduced climate-network approach, we obtain reliable forecasts for both the onset and the type of an event: at a lead time of about one year, 2/3 of the EP forecasts and all CP forecasts in the regarded period are correct. The combined model has considerably more predictive power than the current operational type forecasts with a mean lead time of about 1 month and should allow early mitigation measures.
