论文标题

通过贝叶斯神经网络对高度可配置软件系统的不确定性感知性能预测

Uncertainty-Aware Performance Prediction for Highly Configurable Software Systems via Bayesian Neural Networks

论文作者

Ha, Huong, Fan, Zongwen, Zhang, Hongyu

论文摘要

可配置的软件系统用于许多重要的应用程序域中。了解所有配置下系统的性能对于防止因配置错误引起的潜在性能问题至关重要。但是,由于配置的数量可以过多,因此无法在所有配置下测量系统性能。因此,一种常见的方法是从有限的测量数据中构建预测模型,以预测所有配置作为标量值的性能。但是,已经指出,数据收集或建模过程的不确定性来源不同,这可以使标量预测不确定准确。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了一种基于贝叶斯深度学习的方法,即bdlperf,可以将不确定性纳入预测模型。 BDLPERF可以为配置性能提供标量预测,也可以提供这些标量预测的相应置信区间。我们还开发了一种新型的不确定性校准技术,以确保贝叶斯预测模型产生的置信区间的可靠性。最后,我们建议采用有效的高参数调谐技术,以便在合理的时间内训练预测模型,同时达到高精度。我们对10个现实世界系统的实验结果表明,在标量性能预测和置信区间估计中,BDLPERF的精度比现有方法更高。

Configurable software systems are employed in many important application domains. Understanding the performance of the systems under all configurations is critical to prevent potential performance issues caused by misconfiguration. However, as the number of configurations can be prohibitively large, it is not possible to measure the system performance under all configurations. Thus, a common approach is to build a prediction model from a limited measurement data to predict the performance of all configurations as scalar values. However, it has been pointed out that there are different sources of uncertainty coming from the data collection or the modeling process, which can make the scalar predictions not certainly accurate. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian deep learning based method, namely BDLPerf, that can incorporate uncertainty into the prediction model. BDLPerf can provide both scalar predictions for configurations' performance and the corresponding confidence intervals of these scalar predictions. We also develop a novel uncertainty calibration technique to ensure the reliability of the confidence intervals generated by a Bayesian prediction model. Finally, we suggest an efficient hyperparameter tuning technique so as to train the prediction model within a reasonable amount of time whilst achieving high accuracy. Our experimental results on 10 real-world systems show that BDLPerf achieves higher accuracy than existing approaches, in both scalar performance prediction and confidence interval estimation.

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