论文标题

可以在已知的主要和次要行星的当前追踪中检测到行星X的重力效应吗?

Can the gravitational effect of Planet X be detected in current-era tracking of the known major and minor planets?

论文作者

Gomes, Daniel C. H., Murray, Zachary, Gomes, Rafael C. H., Holman, Matthew J., Bernstein, Gary M.

论文摘要

使用Fisher Information矩阵,我们通过其潮汐引力场对已知行星的动作进行了测量,预测了在HeliIpratric距离$ d_x $的“行星X”上的不确定性$σ_m$。使用当前手头的行星测量值,包括朱诺,卡西尼和火星孔的航天器,我们预测中位数不确定性(所有可能的天空位置)为$σ_m= 0.22m_ = 0.22m_ \ oplus(d_x/400 $ 5M_ \ oplus $ planet x at $ d_x = 400 $ au应该可以在整个天空中进行,但仅在$ d_x = 800 $ au的天空中只有5%。未发现的地球或火星质量物体的重力应分别在90%的天空中检测到260或120 au的距离。即将到来的火星范围仅略微改善这些极限。我们还调查了2023---2035时期的高精度天文测量$ \约8000美元的大约8000美元的木马,从即将进行的时空和时间调查(LSST)开始。我们发现,可以在内部解决信息损失,而信息损失最小,可以在内部解决光学特洛伊木马天体测量法(光心运动,非重力力和差分色折射)的主要系统误差。特洛伊木马数据允许与Juno/Cassini/Mars范围内的有用的交叉检查,但直到它们为$ \ gtrsim10 \ times $ $准确的$ cy $ $σ_m$值均比LSST预期的要准确。搜索行星X潮汐场的最终限制因素是与Kuiper Belt的四极力矩作为其成员轨道所产生的潮汐场混淆。但是,直到数据变得比今天更好,这种背景不会成为行星X不确定性的主要来源。

Using Fisher information matrices, we forecast the uncertainties $σ_M$ on the measurement of a "Planet X" at heliocentric distance $d_X$ via its tidal gravitational field's action on the known planets. Using planetary measurements currently in hand, including ranging from the Juno, Cassini, and Mars-orbiting spacecraft, we forecast a median uncertainty (over all possible sky positions) of $σ_M=0.22M_\oplus (d_x/400\,\textrm{AU})^3.$ A definitive $(5σ)$ detection of a $5M_\oplus$ Planet X at $d_X=400$ AU should be possible over the full sky but over only 5% of the sky at $d_X=800$ AU. The gravity of an undiscovered Earth- or Mars-mass object should be detectable over 90% of the sky to a distance of 260 or 120 AU, respectively. Upcoming Mars ranging improves these limits only slightly. We also investigate the power of high-precision astrometry of $\approx8000$ Jovian Trojans over the 2023--2035 period from the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We find that the dominant systematic errors in optical Trojan astrometry (photocenter motion, non-gravitational forces, and differential chromatic refraction) can be solved internally with minimal loss of information. The Trojan data allow useful cross-checks with Juno/Cassini/Mars ranging, but do not significantly improve the best-achievable $σ_M$ values until they are $\gtrsim10\times$ more accurate than expected from LSST. The ultimate limiting factor in searches for a Planet X tidal field is confusion with the tidal field created by the fluctuating quadrupole moment of the Kuiper Belt as its members orbit. This background will not, however, become the dominant source of Planet X uncertainty until the data get substantially better than they are today.

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