论文标题
评估药品创新
Valuing Pharmaceutical Drug Innovations
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一种估计药品市场价值的方法。我们的方法将活动研究与折现现金流量的模型相结合，并利用股票市场对药物开发公告的反应来推断价值。我们估计，成功的药物的价值为16.2亿美元，在发现阶段的价值为6,430万美元，主要疾病之间存在很大的异质性。利用这些估计值，我们还确定了各个阶段的平均药物开发成本。此外，我们探索将估计值应用于设计政策，这些政策通过吸毒和成本分担协议来支持药物开发。
We propose a methodology to estimate the market value of pharmaceutical drugs. Our approach combines an event study with a model of discounted cash flows and uses stock market responses to drug development announcements to infer the values. We estimate that, on average, a successful drug is valued at \$1.62 billion, and its value at the discovery stage is \$64.3 million, with substantial heterogeneity across major diseases. Leveraging these estimates, we also determine the average drug development costs at various stages. Furthermore, we explore applying our estimates to design policies that support drug development through drug buyouts and cost-sharing agreements.
