论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

A Flexible Nadaraya-Watson Head Can Offer Explainable and Calibrated Classification

论文作者

Wang, Alan Q., Sabuncu, Mert R.

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

In this paper, we empirically analyze a simple, non-learnable, and nonparametric Nadaraya-Watson (NW) prediction head that can be used with any neural network architecture. In the NW head, the prediction is a weighted average of labels from a support set. The weights are computed from distances between the query feature and support features. This is in contrast to the dominant approach of using a learnable classification head (e.g., a fully-connected layer) on the features, which can be challenging to interpret and can yield poorly calibrated predictions. Our empirical results on an array of computer vision tasks demonstrate that the NW head can yield better calibration with comparable accuracy compared to its parametric counterpart, particularly in data-limited settings. To further increase inference-time efficiency, we propose a simple approach that involves a clustering step run on the training set to create a relatively small distilled support set. Furthermore, we explore two means of interpretability/explainability that fall naturally from the NW head. The first is the label weights, and the second is our novel concept of the ``support influence function,'' which is an easy-to-compute metric that quantifies the influence of a support element on the prediction for a given query. As we demonstrate in our experiments, the influence function can allow the user to debug a trained model. We believe that the NW head is a flexible, interpretable, and highly useful building block that can be used in a range of applications.

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