论文标题
潜在空间中的交响曲:可证明将高维技术与非线性机器学习模型相结合
Symphony in the Latent Space: Provably Integrating High-dimensional Techniques with Non-linear Machine Learning Models
论文作者
论文摘要
本文重新审视了构建机器学习算法,该算法涉及实体之间的交互,例如积极管理的投资组合中金融资产之间的交互,或社交网络中用户之间的交互。我们的目标是在此类应用程序中预测多元时间序列的合奏的未来演变(例如,金融资产的未来回报或Twitter帐户的未来流行)。为此类系统设计ML算法需要应对高维相互作用和非线性的挑战。现有方法通常采用临时方法将高维技术整合到非线性模型中,而最近的研究表明,这些方法在时间不断发展的交互系统中具有可疑的功效。 为此,我们提出了一个新颖的框架,我们将其作为加成影响模型。在我们的建模假设下,我们表明可以从学习非线性特征相互作用的学习中解脱出高维相互作用的学习。为了学习高维相互作用,我们利用基于内核的技术(可证明的保证)将实体嵌入低维潜在空间中。为了学习非线性特征响应相互作用,我们概括了突出的机器学习技术,包括设计一种新的统计上声音非参数方法和针对向量回归优化的集合学习算法。对两个常见应用的广泛实验表明,与标准和最近提出的方法相比,我们的新算法具有明显更强的预测能力。
This paper revisits building machine learning algorithms that involve interactions between entities, such as those between financial assets in an actively managed portfolio, or interactions between users in a social network. Our goal is to forecast the future evolution of ensembles of multivariate time series in such applications (e.g., the future return of a financial asset or the future popularity of a Twitter account). Designing ML algorithms for such systems requires addressing the challenges of high-dimensional interactions and non-linearity. Existing approaches usually adopt an ad-hoc approach to integrating high-dimensional techniques into non-linear models and recent studies have shown these approaches have questionable efficacy in time-evolving interacting systems. To this end, we propose a novel framework, which we dub as the additive influence model. Under our modeling assumption, we show that it is possible to decouple the learning of high-dimensional interactions from the learning of non-linear feature interactions. To learn the high-dimensional interactions, we leverage kernel-based techniques, with provable guarantees, to embed the entities in a low-dimensional latent space. To learn the non-linear feature-response interactions, we generalize prominent machine learning techniques, including designing a new statistically sound non-parametric method and an ensemble learning algorithm optimized for vector regressions. Extensive experiments on two common applications demonstrate that our new algorithms deliver significantly stronger forecasting power compared to standard and recently proposed methods.