论文标题
基于流行病学建模中相关的社会接触模式的国家聚类
Clustering of countries based on the associated social contact patterns in epidemiological modelling
论文作者
论文摘要
数学模型已用于了解传染病的扩散模式，例如2019年冠状病毒病（Covid-19）。模型的传输成分可以通过为人群引入接触矩阵以年龄的方式建模，该矩阵描述了年龄组之间的接触率。由于社会接触模式因各个国家而异，因此我们可以使用相应的接触矩阵对国家进行比较和分组。在本文中，我们根据基本的流行模型提出了一个基于其接触矩阵的聚类国家的框架。由于管道是通用和模块化的，因此我们在Röst等人的Covid-19模型中演示了其应用。 al。这暗示只有非药物干预措施可用，可以在大流行状况中比较哪些国家。
Mathematical models have been used to understand the spread patterns of infectious diseases such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission component of the models can be modelled in an age-dependent manner via introducing contact matrix for the population, which describes the contact rates between the age groups. Since social contact patterns vary from country to country, we can compare and group the countries using the corresponding contact matrices. In this paper, we present a framework for clustering countries based on their contact matrices with respect to an underlying epidemic model. Since the pipeline is generic and modular, we demonstrate its application in a COVID-19 model from Röst et. al. which gives a hint about which countries can be compared in a pandemic situation, when only non-pharmaceutical interventions are available.
