论文标题

负二项式和泊松计数的混合物的重尾损失频率

Heavy-Tailed Loss Frequencies from Mixtures of Negative Binomial and Poisson Counts

论文作者

Dai, Jiansheng, Huang, Ziheng, Powers, Michael R., Xu, Jiaxin

论文摘要

重尾随机变量已在保险研究中使用,以模拟损失频率和损失严重性的模型,并且更加重视后者。在目前的工作中,我们通过探索由负二项式和泊松随机变量的连续混合物形成的重尾频率模型的类别来解决这种不平衡。我们首先定义了混合分布的校准家族的概念(每个成员都可以从其相关的负二项式混合物中识别),并展示如何仅从一个成员中构建此类家庭。然后,我们引入了一个新的重尾频率模型 - 两参数ZY分布 - 作为对单参数Zeta和Yule分布的概括,并为新分布和重尾两参数战争分布构建校准家族。最后,我们追求ZY和Waring家族的自然扩展,以进行统一的四参数重尾模型,为新颖的损失频率建模方法提供了基础,以补充常规GLM分析。将这种方法应用于经典的一组瑞典商用汽车保险损失数据。

Heavy-tailed random variables have been used in insurance research to model both loss frequencies and loss severities, with substantially more emphasis on the latter. In the present work, we take a step toward addressing this imbalance by exploring the class of heavy-tailed frequency models formed by continuous mixtures of Negative Binomial and Poisson random variables. We begin by defining the concept of a calibrative family of mixing distributions (each member of which is identifiable from its associated Negative Binomial mixture), and show how to construct such families from only a single member. We then introduce a new heavy-tailed frequency model -- the two-parameter ZY distribution -- as a generalization of both the one-parameter Zeta and Yule distributions, and construct calibrative families for both the new distribution and the heavy-tailed two-parameter Waring distribution. Finally, we pursue natural extensions of both the ZY and Waring families to a unifying, four-parameter heavy-tailed model, providing the foundation for a novel loss-frequency modeling approach to complement conventional GLM analyses. This approach is illustrated by application to a classic set of Swedish commercial motor-vehicle insurance loss data.

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