论文标题
一种投影突然冬季北极海冰损失时间的方法
An approach for projecting the timing of abrupt winter Arctic sea ice loss
论文作者
论文摘要
在人为变暖下，由于海冰平衡的崩溃，突然和不可逆转的冬季北极海冰损失可能会在阈值$ _2 $的阈值中崩溃，通常称为临界点。以前的工作无法最终确定是否存在北极海冰中的临界点，因为完全耦合的气候模型在计算机上太昂贵，无法在许多CO $ _2 $值的情况下运行达到平衡。在这里，我们探讨了海冰与其平衡状态的偏差，在CO $ _2 $的现实速率上增加，以证明如何使用一些时间依赖时间的CO $ _2 $实验来预测Sea-Ice临界点的存在和时机，而无需运行模型稳态。这项研究强调了使用单个实验进行慢速变化CO $ _2 $的效率低下，以发现海冰稳态的变化，并提供了一种替代方法，可以开发出来以识别现实气候模型中的倾斜点。
Abrupt and irreversible winter Arctic sea-ice loss may occur under anthropogenic warming due to the collapse of a sea-ice equilibrium at a threshold value of CO$_2$, commonly referred to as a tipping point. Previous work has been unable to conclusively identify whether a tipping point in Arctic sea ice exists because fully-coupled climate models are too computationally expensive to run to equilibrium for many CO$_2$ values. Here, we explore the deviation of sea ice from its equilibrium state under realistic rates of CO$_2$ increase to demonstrate how a few time-dependent CO$_2$ experiments can be used to predict the existence and timing of sea-ice tipping points without running the model to steady-state. This study highlights the inefficacy of using a single experiment with slow-changing CO$_2$ to discover changes in the sea-ice steady-state, and provides an alternate method that can be developed for the identification of tipping points in realistic climate models.
