论文标题
在电力危机期间建模电力的小时消耗
Modelling the Hourly Consumption of Electricity during Period of Power Crisis
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们使用两态马尔可夫自动回归（MS-AR）和自动回应（AR）模型捕获了加纳电力危机（“ Dumsor”时期）每小时电力消耗的动态行为。 2014年1月1日至2014年12月31日期之间的每小时数据是从加纳电网公司获得的，并用于研究。使用不同的信息标准，选择MS（2）-AR（4）作为描述加纳电力危机期间电力消耗的动态行为的最佳模型。然后使用预期最大化算法估算MS（2）-AR（4）模型的参数。从结果来看，在低电力消耗状态下停留的可能性估计为87 \％。低电力消耗状态的预期持续时间为每天7.8小时，高电力消耗状态预计每天持续2.3小时。与自回归模型相比，提出的模型是可靠的，因为它可以通过峰会有效地捕获电力需求的动态，并且消费模式的显着波动。同样，该模型可以识别与电力危机期间与电力消耗相关的不同制度变化。
In this paper, we capture the dynamic behaviour of hourly consumption of electricity during the period of power crisis ("dumsor" period) in Ghana using two-state Markov switching autoregressive (MS-AR) and autoregressive (AR) models. Hourly data between the periods of January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2014 was obtained from the Ghana Grid company and used for the study. Using different information criteria, the MS(2)-AR(4) is selected as the optimal model to describe the dynamic behaviour of electricity consumption during periods of power crisis in Ghana. The parameters of the MS(2)-AR(4) model are then estimated using the expectation-maximization algorithm. From the results, the likelihood of staying under a low electricity consumption regime is estimated to be 87\%. The expected duration for a low electricity consumption regime is 7.8 hours daily, and the high electricity consumption regime is expected to last 2.3 hours daily. The proposed model is robust as compared to the autoregressive model because it effectively captures the dynamics of electricity demand over time through the peaks and significant fluctuations in consumption patterns. Similarly, the model can identify distinct regime changes linked to electricity consumption during periods of power crises.
