论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Model-free controlled variable selection via data splitting
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Addressing the simultaneous identification of contributory variables while controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) in high-dimensional data is a crucial statistical challenge. In this paper, we propose a novel model-free variable selection procedure in sufficient dimension reduction framework via a data splitting technique. The variable selection problem is first converted to a least squares procedure with several response transformations. We construct a series of statistics with global symmetry property and leverage the symmetry to derive a data-driven threshold aimed at error rate control. Our approach demonstrates the capability for achieving finite-sample and asymptotic FDR control under mild theoretical conditions. Numerical experiments confirm that our procedure has satisfactory FDR control and higher power compared with existing methods.
