论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Tools for Extracting Spatio-Temporal Patterns in Meteorological Image Sequences: From Feature Engineering to Attention-Based Neural Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Atmospheric processes involve both space and time. This is why human analysis of atmospheric imagery can often extract more information from animated loops of image sequences than from individual images. Automating such an analysis requires the ability to identify spatio-temporal patterns in image sequences which is a very challenging task, because of the endless possibilities of patterns in both space and time. In this paper we review different concepts and techniques that are useful to extract spatio-temporal context specifically for meteorological applications. In this survey we first motivate the need for these approaches in meteorology using two applications, solar forecasting and detecting convection from satellite imagery. Then we provide an overview of many different concepts and techniques that are helpful for the interpretation of meteorological image sequences, such as (1) feature engineering methods to strengthen the desired signal in the input, using meteorological knowledge, classic image processing, harmonic analysis and topological data analysis (2) explain how different convolution filters (2D/3D/LSTM-convolution) can be utilized strategically in convolutional neural network architectures to find patterns in both space and time (3) discuss the powerful new concept of 'attention' in neural networks and the powerful abilities it brings to the interpretation of image sequences (4) briefly survey strategies from unsupervised, self-supervised and transfer learning to reduce the need for large labeled datasets. We hope that presenting an overview of these tools - many of which are underutilized - will help accelerate progress in this area.