论文标题
多路复用网络中地方性疾病传播和逐渐意识扩散的耦合动力学
Coupled dynamics of endemic disease transmission and gradual awareness diffusion in multiplex networks
论文作者
论文摘要
了解人类行为现象与传染病动力学之间的相互作用一直是数学流行病学的核心挑战之一。但是,在早期模型中,经常忽略或过分简化了在爆发期间开始启动所需行为反应至关重要的社会认知过程。将微观马尔可夫链方法与总概率定律相结合,我们在这里提出了一个数学模型,描述了基于阶段的意识扩散和多路复用网络中流行疾病传播之间的动态相互作用。我们分析了模型的离散时间和连续时间版本的流行阈值,并在数值上证明了分析论证在捕获时间过程和耦合疾病意识动力学的稳态方面的准确性。我们发现,我们的模型对于任意无聚集的多重网络是精确的,在预测传染的时间进化和最终的流行病大小的预测中,都超过了广泛采用的基于概率的方法。我们的发现表明,除非分布式信息会引发对感染风险有足够的保护措施的强烈认识,否则向不知情的人告知个人有关循环疾病的疾病,并且只有在较弱的高度过渡到强度较高的情况下,就可以促进对感染风险的强烈认识。因此,我们的研究表明,当意识扩散和其他行为参数对传染病的流行病学动力学产生影响时,可能会非差异,这表明未来的公共卫生措施不应忽略这种复杂的行为相互作用及其对多层网络系统中传播传播的影响。
Understanding the interplay between human behavioral phenomena and infectious disease dynamics has been one of the central challenges of mathematical epidemiology. However, socio-cognitive processes critical for the initiation of desired behavioral responses during an outbreak have often been neglected or oversimplified in earlier models. Combining the microscopic Markov chain approach with the law of total probability, we herein institute a mathematical model describing the dynamic interplay between stage-based progression of awareness diffusion and endemic disease transmission in multiplex networks. We analytically derived the epidemic thresholds for both discrete-time and continuous-time versions of our model, and we numerically demonstrated the accuracy of our analytic arguments in capturing the time course and the steady-state of the coupled disease-awareness dynamics. We found that our model is exact for arbitrary unclustered multiplex networks, outperforming a widely adopted probability-tree-based method, both in the prediction of the time-evolution of a contagion and in the final epidemic size. Our findings show that informing the unaware individuals about the circulating disease will not be sufficient for the prevention of an outbreak unless the distributed information triggers strong awareness of infection risks with adequate protective measures, and that the immunity of highly-aware individuals can elevate the epidemic threshold, but only if the rate of transition from weak to strong awareness is sufficiently high. Our study thus reveals that awareness diffusion and other behavioral parameters can nontrivially interact when producing their effects on epidemiological dynamics of an infectious disease, suggesting that future public health measures should not ignore this complex behavioral interplay and its influence on contagion transmission in multilayered networked systems.