论文标题
避免“伟大的过滤器”:外星生命和人类在宇宙中的未来
Avoiding the "Great Filter": Extraterrestrial Life and Humanity's Future in the Universe
论文作者
论文摘要
我们的宇宙是一个巨大而诱人的谜团 - 一个谜团引起了人类对eons的先天好奇心。到目前为止,乞讨有关外星人生命形式的问题仍然没有成果,即使我们近年来我们已经实现了界限的进步。再加上逻辑上的假设和计算,例如弗兰克·德雷克(Frank Drake)博士从1960年代初开始,仅在我们的银河系中就应该存在数百万的证据,但我们在实践中没有明确的肯定。那么,每个人在哪里?从某种意义上说,过去的宇宙似乎沉默揭示了顽固的人类限制层。即使诸如SETI之类的雄心勃勃的计划旨在解决这些棘手的挑战,结果也出现了相当悲观的可能性。随着我们的社会向太空探索的指数发展,一场存在的灾难可能正在等待,充当了巨大的过滤器:这种现象在彼此遇到之前消除了文明的现象,这可以解释宇宙的寂静。在本文中,我们提出了几种可能的世界末日型场景,包括人为和自然危害,这两种情况都可以通过个人,机构和内在行为进行改革来预防。我们考虑了多个灾难候选人:核战争,病原体和大流行病,人工智能,小行星和彗星的影响以及气候变化。这些类别中的每一个都有各种影响,但缺乏关键的调整以适应其高风险。长期以来,我们一直忽略了迅速侵蚀的巨大过滤器,即使它威胁要完全消耗我们,尤其是当我们的进度速度与跌倒的严重程度直接相关时。这表明了必要的内省时期,然后进行适当的改进,以适当地解决我们的困境,并看到我们的方式。
Our Universe is a vast, tantalizing enigma - a mystery that has aroused humankind's innate curiosity for eons. Begging questions on alien lifeforms have been thus far unfruitful, even with the bounding advancements we have embarked upon in recent years. Coupled with logical assumption and calculations such as made by Dr. Frank Drake starting in the early 1960s, evidence in the millions should exist in our galaxy alone, and yet we've produced no clear affirmation in practice. So, where is everybody? In one sense, the seeming silence of the Universe past terra firma reveals layers of stubborn human limitation. Even as ambitious programs such as SETI aim to solve these knotty challenges, the results have turned up rather pessimistic possibilities. An existential disaster may lay in wait as our society advances exponentially towards space exploration, acting as the Great Filter: a phenomenon that wipes out civilizations before they can encounter each other, which may explain the cosmic silence. In this article, we propose several possible doomsday-type scenarios, including anthropogenic and natural hazards, both of which can be prevented with reforms in individual, institutional and intrinsic behaviors. We take into account multiple calamity candidates: nuclear warfare, pathogens and pandemics, artificial intelligence, asteroid and comet impacts, and climate change. Each of these categories have various influences but lack critical adjustment to accommodate to their high risk. We have long ignored the quickly encroaching Great Filter, even as it threatens to consume us entirely, especially as our rate of progress correlates directly to the severity of our fall. This indicates a necessary period of introspection, followed by appropriate refinements to properly approach our predicament, and see our way through it.