论文标题
贝耶斯:贝叶斯因果中介分析的R包包
BayesGmed: An R-package for Bayesian Causal Mediation Analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
过去十年中,因果中介分析中的研究爆炸爆炸。但是,到目前为止,大多数开发的分析工具都取决于频繁的方法,这些方法在小样本量的情况下可能不健壮。在本文中,我们提出了一种基于贝叶斯G形成的因果介导分析的贝叶斯方法。我们创建了用于在R中拟合贝叶斯调解模型的R包,方法是通过对音乐家研究的一部分收集的数据进行的二次分析来证明,这是一项远程交付的认知行为疗法(TCBT)的随机对照试验,以使其对患有慢性疼痛的人进行。我们检验了以下假设:TCBT的效果将通过主动应对,被动应对,对运动和睡眠问题的恐惧和睡眠问题的改善所介导。音乐家数据的分析表明,与治疗相比,TCBT具有改善的患者健康状况的自我感知变化(TAU)。当针对睡眠问题调整时,TCBT的调整后的TCBT对数范围从1.491(0.452,2.612)范围从2.264(1.063,3.610)进行调整,因为害怕害怕运动。 Higher scores of fear of movement (log-odds, -0.141 (-0.245, -0.048)), passive coping (log-odds, -0.217 (-0.351, -0.104)), and sleep problem (log-odds, -0.179 (-0.291, -0.078)) leads to lower odds of a positive self-perceived change in health status.然而,贝叶斯的结果表明,介导的作用均未具有统计学意义。我们比较了贝esgemed与中介r套件,结果是可比的。最后,我们使用贝耶式工具使用的概率灵敏度分析表明,即使在没有无法衡量的混淆的情况下,TCBT的直接和总效应仍然存在。
The past decade has seen an explosion of research in causal mediation analysis. However, most analytic tools developed so far rely on frequentist methods which may not be robust in the case of small sample sizes. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach for causal mediation analysis based on Bayesian g-formula. We created BayesGmed, an R-package for fitting Bayesian mediation models in R. The application of the methodology (and software tool) is demonstrated by a secondary analysis of data collected as part of the MUSICIAN study, a randomised controlled trial of remotely delivered cognitive behavioural therapy (tCBT) for people with chronic pain. We tested the hypothesis that the effect of tCBT would be mediated by improvements in active coping, passive coping, fear of movement and sleep problems. The analysis of MUSICIAN data shows that tCBT has better-improved patients' self-perceived change in health status compared to treatment as usual (TAU). The adjusted log-odds of tCBT compared to TAU range from 1.491 (0.452, 2.612) when adjusted for sleep problems to 2.264 (1.063, 3.610) when adjusted for fear of movement. Higher scores of fear of movement (log-odds, -0.141 (-0.245, -0.048)), passive coping (log-odds, -0.217 (-0.351, -0.104)), and sleep problem (log-odds, -0.179 (-0.291, -0.078)) leads to lower odds of a positive self-perceived change in health status. The result of BayesGmed, however, shows that none of the mediated effects are statistically significant. We compared BayesGmed with the mediation R package, and the results were comparable. Finally, our probabilistic sensitivity analysis using the BayesGmed tool shows that the direct and total effect of tCBT persists even for a large departure in the assumption of no unmeasured confounding.