论文标题

关于基于绩效的工程的终身性假设

On the ergodicity assumption in Performance-Based Engineering

论文作者

Beck, Andre T., Bosse, Rubia M., Rodrigues, Isabela D.

论文摘要

在基于绩效的工程框架(PBE)框架中,已显示系统参数的不确定性或建模不确定性对容量脆弱性和建筑物的年度崩溃率有重大影响。但是,由于对不确定性进行建模是非恋爱变量,因此它们在故障率计算中的考虑会冒犯独立穿越的泊松假设。文献中已经解决了这个问题,并且发现年度崩溃失败率较小的错误可忽略不计。但是,对于可维修性限制状态以及及时整合故障率以提供终身失败概率,这些错误可能是重大的。本文中,我们提出了一种新颖的公式,以完全避免在非毒品变量的整合中误差。所提出的水平公式公式与PBE环境中流行的脆弱性建模方法完全兼容。此外,我们解决了现实的钢筋混凝土建筑物的崩溃限制状态,并发现50年生命的5%至8%的订单错误,在100年内最多可达14%。 PBE上下文中准确的终身失败概率的计算显然很重要,因为它允许与其他结构分析公式的寿命目标可靠性值进行比较。

In the Performance-Based Engineering (PBE) framework, uncertainties in system parameters, or modelling uncertainties, have been shown to have significant effects on capacity fragilities and annual collapse rates of buildings. Yet, since modelling uncertainties are non-ergodic variables, their consideration in failure rate calculations offends the Poisson assumption of independent crossings. This problem has been addressed in the literature, and errors found negligible for small annual collapse failure rates. However, the errors could be significant for serviceability limit states, and when failure rates are integrated in time, to provide lifetime failure probabilities. Herein, we present a novel formulation to fully avoid the error in integration of non-ergodic variables. The proposed product-of-lognormals formulation is fully compatible with popular fragility modelling approaches in PBE context. Moreover, we address collapse limit states of realistic reinforced concrete buildings, and find errors of the order of 5 to 8% for 50-year lifetimes, up to 14% for 100 years. Computation of accurate lifetime failure probabilities in a PBE context is clearly important, as it allows comparison with lifetime target reliability values for other structural analysis formulations.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源