论文标题

解码双重麻烦:SARS-COV-2和类似流感的疾病的共感染动力学的数学建模

Decoding the double trouble: A mathematical modelling of co-infection dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza-like illness

论文作者

Bhowmick, Suman, Sokolov, Igor M., Lentz, Hartmut H. K.

论文摘要

在12月下旬,由于严重的急性呼吸综合症冠状病毒2(SARS-COV-2),2019年冠状病毒疾病2019年冠状病毒疾病(Covid-19),中国的冠状病毒2(SARS-COV-2)于12月下旬于12月下旬引起的,COVID-19的病例在全球范围内螺旋式增长。由于COVID-19与其他氟型综合征的临床相似性,因此,对患者进行了其他病原体(如疾病)的测定。据报道,COVID-19患者共同感染了共同感染。细菌例如肺炎链球菌,金黄色葡萄球菌,肺炎克雷伯氏菌,肺炎,肺炎,肺炎,肺炎肺炎,肺炎,肺炎,肺炎,肺炎和病毒,例如造成薄弱流感B病毒等被鉴定为司托。在目前的努力中,我们开发和分析了一个基于隔室的普通微分方程(ODE)类型数学模型,以了解Covid-19和其他流感型疾病的共感染动力学。在这项工作中,我们纳入了饱和的治疗率,以考虑有限治疗资源对控制可能的COVID-19病例的影响。结果,我们制定了模型系统的基本繁殖数。最后,我们进行了共感染模型的数值模拟,以检查参数空间不同区域中的解决方案。

After the detection of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in late December, the cases of Covid-19 have spiralled out around the globe. Due to the clinical similarity of Covid-19 with other flulike syndromes, patients are assayed for other pathogens of influenza like illness. There have been reported cases of co-infection amongst patients with Covid-19. Bacteria for example Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Mycoplasma pneumoniae, Chlamydia pneumonia, Legionella pneumophila etc and viruses such as influenza, coronavirus, rhinovirus/enterovirus, parainfluenza, metapneumovirus, influenza B virus etc are identified as co-pathogens. In our current effort, we develop and analysed a compartmental based Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) type mathematical model to understand the co-infection dynamics of Covid-19 and other influenza type illness. In this work we have incorporated the saturated treatment rate to take account of the impact of limited treatment resources to control the possible Covid-19 cases. As results, we formulate the basic reproduction number of the model system. Finally, we have performed numerical simulations of the co-infection model to examine the solutions in different zones of parameter space.

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