论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Controversy-seeking fuels rumor-telling activity in polarized opinion networks
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Rumors have ignited revolutions, undermined the trust in political parties, or threatened the stability of human societies. Such destructive potential has been significantly enhanced by the development of on-line social networks. Several theoretical and computational studies have been devoted to understanding the dynamics and to control rumor spreading. In the present work, a model of rumor-telling in opinion polarized networks was investigated through extensive computer simulations. The key mechanism is the coupling between ones' opinions and their leaning to spread a given information, either by supporting or opposing its content. We report that a highly modular topology of polarized networks strongly impairs rumor spreading, but the couplings between agent's opinions and their spreading/stifling rates can either further inhibit or, conversely, foster information propagation, depending on the nature of those couplings. In particular, a controversy-seeking mechanism, in which agents are stimulated to postpone their transitions to the stiffer state upon interactions with other agents of confronting opinions, enhances the rumor spreading. Therefore such a mechanism is capable of overcoming the propagation bottlenecks imposed by loosely connected modular structures.