论文标题
填补空白：一种估算棒球衰老曲线的多种插补方法
Filling the Gaps: A Multiple Imputation Approach to Estimating Aging Curves in Baseball
论文作者
论文摘要
在运动中，老龄化曲线描述了运动员职业的平均表现与年龄之间的关系。本文调查了美国职棒大联盟进攻球员的老化曲线。我们在缺少的数据上下文中研究了这个问题，并在职业生涯中说明了棒球运动员的不同类型的辍学。我们对多级数据采用多个插补框架来估算与丢失季节相关的播放器性能，并根据估算的数据集估算老化曲线。然后，在应用我们的方法分析过去季节的MLB播放器数据之前，我们通过模拟评估了不同辍学机制对老化曲线的影响。结果表明，高估了构建的老化曲线而不考虑未观察到的季节，而从多个插补的估计值解决了这一缺点。
In sports, an aging curve depicts the relationship between average performance and age in athletes' careers. This paper investigates the aging curves for offensive players in Major League Baseball. We study this problem in a missing data context and account for different types of dropouts of baseball players during their careers. We employ a multiple imputation framework for multilevel data to impute the player performance associated with the missing seasons, and estimate the aging curves based on the imputed datasets. We then evaluate the effects of different dropout mechanisms on the aging curves through simulation, before applying our method to analyze MLB player data from past seasons. Results suggest an overestimation of the aging curves constructed without considering the unobserved seasons, whereas estimates obtained from multiple imputation address this shortcoming.
