论文标题
用于机器学习分类器的基于可变的校准
Variable-Based Calibration for Machine Learning Classifiers
论文作者
论文摘要
在高风险域中的机器学习分类器的部署需要模型预测的置信得分良好。在本文中,我们介绍了基于可变的校准的概念,以表征模型相对于感兴趣的变量的校准属性,从而推广了传统的基于得分的指标,例如预期校准误差(ECE)。特别是,我们发现具有接近完美的ECE的模型可以表现出明显的错误校准,这是数据特征的函数。我们在理论上还是在多个知名的数据集上都在实践中证明了这一现象,并表明它可以在应用现有校准方法后持续存在。为了减轻此问题,我们提出了基于可变的校准误差的检测,可视化和量化策略。然后,我们检查基于当前分数的校准方法的局限性并探索潜在的修改。最后,我们讨论了这些发现的含义,强调对简单总体措施以外的校准的理解对于公平和模型解释性等努力至关重要。
The deployment of machine learning classifiers in high-stakes domains requires well-calibrated confidence scores for model predictions. In this paper we introduce the notion of variable-based calibration to characterize calibration properties of a model with respect to a variable of interest, generalizing traditional score-based metrics such as expected calibration error (ECE). In particular, we find that models with near-perfect ECE can exhibit significant miscalibration as a function of features of the data. We demonstrate this phenomenon both theoretically and in practice on multiple well-known datasets, and show that it can persist after the application of existing calibration methods. To mitigate this issue, we propose strategies for detection, visualization, and quantification of variable-based calibration error. We then examine the limitations of current score-based calibration methods and explore potential modifications. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings, emphasizing that an understanding of calibration beyond simple aggregate measures is crucial for endeavors such as fairness and model interpretability.