论文标题
信用风险中的可解释的选择性学习
Interpretable Selective Learning in Credit Risk
论文作者
论文摘要
几十年来,对信用违约风险的预测一直是一个重要的研究领域。传统上,由于其准确性和解释性,逻辑回归被广泛认为是解决方案。作为最近的趋势,研究人员倾向于使用更复杂和高级的机器学习方法来提高预测的准确性。尽管某些非线性机器学习方法具有更好的预测能力,但通常认为金融监管机构缺乏可解释性。因此,它们尚未被广泛应用于信用风险评估中。我们引入了一个具有选择性选项的神经网络,以通过区分数据集来通过线性模型来解释,以提高可解释性。我们发现,对于大多数数据集而言,逻辑回归将足够,准确性合理。同时,对于某些特定的数据部分,浅神经网络模型可提高精确度,而无需显着牺牲可解释性。
The forecasting of the credit default risk has been an important research field for several decades. Traditionally, logistic regression has been widely recognized as a solution due to its accuracy and interpretability. As a recent trend, researchers tend to use more complex and advanced machine learning methods to improve the accuracy of the prediction. Although certain non-linear machine learning methods have better predictive power, they are often considered to lack interpretability by financial regulators. Thus, they have not been widely applied in credit risk assessment. We introduce a neural network with the selective option to increase interpretability by distinguishing whether the datasets can be explained by the linear models or not. We find that, for most of the datasets, logistic regression will be sufficient, with reasonable accuracy; meanwhile, for some specific data portions, a shallow neural network model leads to much better accuracy without significantly sacrificing the interpretability.