论文标题
完善OJ 287的预测下一个冲击力到达时期
Refining the prediction for OJ 287 next impact flare arrival epoch
论文作者
论文摘要
明亮的Blazar Oj〜287通常会游行高亮度BREMSSTRAHLUNG耀斑,这被解释为是次级超级黑洞(SMBH)的结果,影响了二进制系统中主要SMBH的积聚磁盘。首先,我们证明这些耀斑有时会由基于开普勒方程式的简单分析公式预测,该公式解释了自1888年以来的耀斑。下一个影响耀斑,即耀斑数字26,因为它破坏了每12年两年的典型模式,这是相当特殊的。这将是当前周期的第三次Bremsstrahlung耀斑,这是在OJ〜287中已经观察到的2015年和2019年撞击耀斑之后。不幸的是,天体物理的考虑使得难以预测耀斑数字26的确切到达时期。在本文的第二部分中,我们描述了我们最近的OJ〜287观察结果。他们表明,在2005年观察到的耀斑数字22的前光曲线表现出与2022年的爆炸前光曲线相似的活性,这是我们模型中预期的耀斑数字26之前。我们认为,前射击活动很可能是在主要射流中产生的,其活性是由次级SMBH通过原发性磁盘的转移而调节的。观察2022年10月OJ〜287的下一个影响力爆发将证实二进制黑洞系统中磁盘影响的理论。
The bright blazar OJ~287 routinely parades high brightness bremsstrahlung flares which are explained as being a result of a secondary supermassive black hole (SMBH) impacting the accretion disk of a primary SMBH in a binary system. We begin by showing that these flares occur at times predicted by a simple analytical formula, based on the Kepler equation, which explains flares since 1888. The next impact flare, namely the flare number 26, is rather peculiar as it breaks the typical pattern of two impact flares per 12 year cycle. This will be the third bremsstrahlung flare of the current cycle that follows the already observed 2015 and 2019 impact flares from OJ~287. Unfortunately, astrophysical considerations make it difficult to predict the exact arrival epoch of the flare number 26. In the second part of the paper, we describe our recent OJ~287 observations. They show that the pre-flare light curve of flare number 22, observed in 2005, exhibits similar activity as the pre-flare light curve in 2022, preceding the expected flare number 26 in our model. We argue that the pre-flare activity most likely arises in the primary jet whose activity is modulated by the transit of the secondary SMBH through the accretion disk of the primary. Observing the next impact flare of OJ~287 in October 2022 will substantiate the theory of disk impacts in binary black hole systems.