论文标题
微生物群落,热带森林和城市人口之间的普遍丰度波动
Universal abundance fluctuations across microbial communities, tropical forests, and urban populations
论文作者
论文摘要
复杂种群的增长,例如微生物群落,森林和城市,发生在截然不同的空间和时间尺度上。尽管不同领域的研究已经开发出详细的,系统特定的模型来了解每个系统,但缺乏对不同复杂人群的统一分析。这样的分析可以加深我们对每个系统的理解,并促进跨领域的工具和见解的交叉授粉。在这里,我们第一次使用共享框架来分析人类肠道微生物组,热带森林和城市就业的时间序列数据。我们证明,随机种群动态的单一三参数模型可以在所有三个数据集中重现人口丰度和波动的经验分布。表征一个物种的三个参数测量其平均丰度,确定性稳定性和随机性。我们的分析表明,尽管规模上存在巨大差异,但在几代人中测量时间时,这三个系统都占据了一个相似的参数空间区域。换句话说,尽管在这些系统中观察到的波动可能看起来有所不同,但这种差异主要是由于与每个系统相关的不同物理时间尺度。此外,我们表明,时间丰度波动的分布仅通过两个参数来描述,并得出了两者的功能形式,以改善风险估计和预测。
The growth of complex populations, such as microbial communities, forests, and cities, occurs over vastly different spatial and temporal scales. Although research in different fields has developed detailed, system-specific models to understand each individual system, a unified analysis of different complex populations is lacking; such an analysis could deepen our understanding of each system and facilitate cross-pollination of tools and insights across fields. Here, for the first time we use a shared framework to analyze time-series data of the human gut microbiome, tropical forest, and urban employment. We demonstrate that a single, three-parameter model of stochastic population dynamics can reproduce the empirical distributions of population abundances and fluctuations in all three data sets. The three parameters characterizing a species measure its mean abundance, deterministic stability, and stochasticity. Our analysis reveals that, despite the vast differences in scale, all three systems occupy a similar region of parameter space when time is measured in generations. In other words, although the fluctuations observed in these systems may appear different, this difference is primarily due to the different physical timescales associated with each system. Further, we show that the distribution of temporal abundance fluctuations is described by just two parameters and derive a two-parameter functional form for abundance fluctuations to improve risk estimation and forecasting.