论文标题
都柏林湾浊度的矢量时间序列建模
Vector Time Series Modelling of Turbidity in Dublin Bay
论文作者
论文摘要
浊度通常被视为重要的水质指数。人类活动(例如挖泥和倾倒操作)可能会破坏浊度水平,并应监视和分析以获取可能的影响。在本文中,我们对都柏林湾的浊度的变化进行了建模,以调查倾倒和挖泥的影响,同时控制风速作为常见的大气效应。我们开发了一种新型的矢量自动回归条件异方差(VARCH)方法,用于建模在不同位置和不同水深下浊度的动力学行为。我们在2017 - 2018年期间使用每日浊度值来适合该模型。我们表明,我们拟合模型的结果与观察到的数据一致,并且通过贝叶斯可信间隔测量的不确定性经过了很好的校准。此外,我们表明,与风速相比,挖泥和倾倒对浊度的日常影响可以忽略不计。
Turbidity is commonly monitored as an important water quality index. Human activities, such as dredging and dumping operations, can disrupt turbidity levels and should be monitored and analyzed for possible effects. In this paper, we model the variations of turbidity in Dublin Bay over space and time to investigate the effects of dumping and dredging while controlling for the effect of wind speed as a common atmospheric effect. We develop a novel Vector Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (VARCH) approach to modelling the dynamical behaviour of turbidity over different locations and at different water depths. We use daily values of turbidity during the years 2017-2018 to fit the model. We show that the results of our fitted model are in line with the observed data and that the uncertainties, measured through Bayesian credible intervals, are well calibrated. Furthermore, we show that the daily effects of dredging and dumping on turbidity are negligible in comparison to that of wind speed.