论文标题
COVID-19期间房屋价格估计的变化揭示了危机对集体猜测的影响
Shift in house price estimates during COVID-19 reveals effect of crisis on collective speculation
论文作者
论文摘要
我们利用一个由单个房屋价格估算组成的城市级别面板，以估算Covid-19对美国加利福尼亚州小型和大型房地产市场的影响。对现货房价估计的描述性分析，包括在线房地产平台Zillow.com上列出的个人物业的同时价格不确定性和30天的价格变化，共同促进了量化这一全球社会经济冲击可归因的超额估值和估值信心。我们的准实验前/COVID-19的设计跨越了2020年左右的几年，并利用了同时的出租物业价格估算的价格，即进入居住市场的房地产，而不是购买（外部），因此没有猜测，因此没有猜测 - 作为适当的销售列表的销售列表，这些物业供出售，这些物业属于销售，这些物业属于货币销售。结合单位级匹配和多元差异差异回归方法，我们获得了有关大流行后观察到的过剩价格增长的符号和幅度的一致估计。具体而言，我们的结果表明，出售列出的财产要高于每月额外的1％，而不是在没有大流行的情况下预期的。这对应于大约12.7个百分点的年度价格增长，这是整个研究区域观察到的2021年实际价格增长的一半以上。同时，价格估计的不确定性减少，表明了先前资产气泡的非理性置信度特征。我们探讨了这两种趋势与市场规模，本地市场供应和借贷成本如何相关，这完全为不确定性和决策中断的违反直觉作用提供了支持。
We exploit a city-level panel comprised of individual house price estimates to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on both small and big real-estate markets in California USA. Descriptive analysis of spot house price estimates, including contemporaneous price uncertainty and 30-day price change for individual properties listed on the online real-estate platform Zillow.com, together facilitate quantifying both the excess valuation and valuation confidence attributable to this global socio-economic shock. Our quasi-experimental pre-/post-COVID-19 design spans several years around 2020 and leverages contemporaneous price estimates of rental properties - i.e., real estate entering the habitation market, just not for purchase (off-market) and hence free of speculation - as an appropriate counterfactual to properties listed for sale, which are subject to on-market speculation. Combining unit-level matching and multivariate difference-in-difference regression approaches, we obtain consistent estimates regarding the sign and magnitude of excess price growth observed after the pandemic onset. Specifically, our results indicate that properties listed for sale appreciated an additional 1% per month above what would be expected in the absence of the pandemic. This corresponds to an excess annual price growth of roughly 12.7 percentage points, which accounts for more than half of the actual annual price growth in 2021 observed across the studied regions. Simultaneously, uncertainty in price estimates decreased, signaling the irrational confidence characteristic of prior asset bubbles. We explore how these two trends are related to market size, local market supply and borrowing costs, which altogether lend support for the counterintuitive roles of uncertainty and interruptions in decision-making.
