论文标题
分析和校准软件开发人员的风险评估
Analyzing and Calibrating Risk Assessment by Software Developers
论文作者
论文摘要
在软件项目管理中,风险管理是关键因素。项目经理使用现有的风险清单或进行头脑风暴来识别风险。但是,客观地感知所有风险并不容易。结果,基于主观印象,人们认为某些风险会导致风险偏见。因此,我们的目标是(i)我们阐明开发人员的风险感知以提高头脑风暴的可靠性,并且(ii)我们基于数学模型来校准风险评估,以使更准确的风险清单。在分析中,我们通过问卷调查收集了有关69个专业软件开发人员风险感知的数据。这些专业人员的平均经验数量为18.3。使用数据集,我们应用因子分析来阐明影响风险影响评估的因素。问卷是基于斯洛维奇(Slovic)建立的风险感知理论,其中“恐惧”和“未知”是风险感知的主要因素。分析结果表明,(i)风险经验(即开发人员是否实际面临风险)有时会影响风险评估(风险影响评估),(ii)风险感知被认为是基于未知数和可怕的因素,并且(iii)风险评估可以通过数学模型(平均绝对误差为0.20)进行校准。
In software project management, risk management is a critical factor. Project managers use existing lists of risk or perform brainstorming to identify the risks. However, it is not easy to perceive all the risks objectively. As a result, some risks are perceived based on subjective impression, which leads to risk biases. So, our goals are (i) We clarify the risk perception of developers to enhance the reliability of the brainstorming, and (ii) we calibrate the risk assessment based on a mathematical model to make more accurate risk list. In the analysis, we collected data concerning the risk perception of 69 professional software developers via a questionnaire. The average number of years of experience among these professionals was 18.3. Using the dataset, we applied factor analysis to clarify the factors that affect the evaluation of risk impact. The questionnaire was based on the risk perception theory established by Slovic, in which "dread" and "unknown" are the major factor of risk perception. The analysis result shows that (i) risk experience (i.e., whether a developer actually faced the risk or not) sometimes affects risk assessment (evaluation of risk impact), (ii) risk perception is considered to be based on unknown and dread factors, and (iii) risk assessment can be calibrated by a mathematical model (the average absolute error was 0.20).