论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
MonaCoBERT: Monotonic attention based ConvBERT for Knowledge Tracing
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Knowledge tracing (KT) is a field of study that predicts the future performance of students based on prior performance datasets collected from educational applications such as intelligent tutoring systems, learning management systems, and online courses. Some previous studies on KT have concentrated only on the interpretability of the model, whereas others have focused on enhancing the performance. Models that consider both interpretability and the performance improvement have been insufficient. Moreover, models that focus on performance improvements have not shown an overwhelming performance compared with existing models. In this study, we propose MonaCoBERT, which achieves the best performance on most benchmark datasets and has significant interpretability. MonaCoBERT uses a BERT-based architecture with monotonic convolutional multihead attention, which reflects forgetting behavior of the students and increases the representation power of the model. We can also increase the performance and interpretability using a classical test-theory-based (CTT-based) embedding strategy that considers the difficulty of the question. To determine why MonaCoBERT achieved the best performance and interpret the results quantitatively, we conducted ablation studies and additional analyses using Grad-CAM, UMAP, and various visualization techniques. The analysis results demonstrate that both attention components complement one another and that CTT-based embedding represents information on both global and local difficulties. We also demonstrate that our model represents the relationship between concepts.