论文标题
复杂非线性非平稳动力学的数据驱动的统计统计数据替代建模策略
A Data-Driven Statistical-Stochastic Surrogate Modeling Strategy for Complex Nonlinear Non-stationary Dynamics
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一种统计型替代建模方法,以预测各种初始条件和外部强迫扰动下的均值和方差统计响应。所提出的建模框架扩展了纯粹的统计建模方法,该方法实际上仅限于高维状态变量的同质统计制度。新的关闭系统允许人们克服在非殖民统计制度中出现的几个实际问题。首先,提出的集合建模,即伴侣平均统计和随机波动自然会产生正定的协方差矩阵估计,这是一个充满挑战的问题,它阻碍了纯粹的统计建模方法。其次,提出的闭合模型嵌入了未解决的通量的非马克维亚神经网络模型,以使动力学的方差保持一致,从而克服了随机波动动力学的固有不稳定。有效地,提出的框架将未解决的动力学的经典随机参数建模范式扩展到了半参数参数化,并具有残留的长期长期内存神经网络体系结构。第三,根据经验信息指标,我们通过拟合损失函数来衡量响应统计之间的差异,提供有效有效的培训程序。 Lorenz-96模型提供了支持的数值示例,Lorenz-96模型是一种与均匀和不均匀统计方案的混乱动力学的特征。在后一种情况下,即使已解决的傅立叶模式与领先的平均能量和方差光谱相对应不一致,我们将看到统计预测的有效性。
We propose a statistical-stochastic surrogate modeling approach to predict the response of the mean and variance statistics under various initial conditions and external forcing perturbations. The proposed modeling framework extends the purely statistical modeling approach that is practically limited to the homogeneous statistical regime for high-dimensional state variables. The new closure system allows one to overcome several practical issues that emerge in the non-homogeneous statistical regimes. First, the proposed ensemble modeling that couples the mean statistics and stochastic fluctuations naturally produces positive-definite covariance matrix estimation, which is a challenging issue that hampers the purely statistical modeling approaches. Second, the proposed closure model, which embeds a non-Markovian neural-network model for the unresolved fluxes such that the variance of the dynamics is consistent, overcomes the inherent instability of the stochastic fluctuation dynamics. Effectively, the proposed framework extends the classical stochastic parametric modeling paradigm for the unresolved dynamics to a semi-parametric parameterization with a residual Long-Short-Term-Memory neural network architecture. Third, based on empirical information metric, we provide an efficient and effective training procedure by fitting a loss function that measures the differences between response statistics. Supporting numerical examples are provided with the Lorenz-96 model, a system of ODEs that admits the characteristic of chaotic dynamics with both homogeneous and inhomogeneous statistical regimes. In the latter case, we will see the effectiveness of the statistical prediction even though the resolved Fourier modes corresponding to the leading mean energy and variance spectra do not coincide.