论文标题

介意傲慢:复杂性可能失火

Mind the hubris: complexity can misfire

论文作者

Puy, Arnald, Saltelli, Andrea

论文摘要

在这里,我们简要反思了哲学基础,这些基础基础是追求不断详细的模型,并确定了从这种追求中造成的四种实际危险:模型的不确定性空间,模型黑盒,计算耗尽和模型附件的爆炸。我们认为,数学模型的增长应仔细,不断地思考,以免模型成为追逐笛卡尔梦的无关结构。

Here we briefly reflect on the philosophical foundations that ground the quest towards ever-detailed models and identify four practical dangers derived from this pursuit: explosion of the model's uncertainty space, model black-boxing, computational exhaustion and model attachment. We argue that the growth of a mathematical model should be carefully and continuously pondered lest models become extraneous constructs chasing the Cartesian dream.

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