论文标题
对气候变化的总经济影响的荟萃分析
A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change
论文作者
论文摘要
早期对气候变化经济影响的荟萃分析有更多的数据进行了更新，并带有三个新的结果：（1）全球变暖的经济影响的核心估计始终是负面的。 （2）关于估计值的置信区间更宽。 （3）激发方法是最悲观的，计量经济学研究最乐观的。先前的结果仍然存在：（4）有关影响的不确定性偏向负面意外。 （5）较贫穷的国家比富裕国家更容易受到伤害。对天气冲击影响的荟萃分析表明，将经济增长与温度水平相关的研究无法就影响的迹象达成共识，而研究使经济增长成为温度变化的函数确实在标志上是一致的，但有效的数量级有所不同。前一项研究表明，气候变化对经济增长有永久影响，后者是瞬时的。对气候变化影响所隐含的经济增长的影响接近估计的增长影响是天气冲击的函数。碳的社会成本显示出与总影响估计的类似模式，但更强调了近期和中期中等变暖的影响。
Earlier meta-analyses of the economic impact of climate change are updated with more data, with three new results: (1) The central estimate of the economic impact of global warming is always negative. (2) The confidence interval about the estimates is much wider. (3) Elicitation methods are most pessimistic, econometric studies most optimistic. Two previous results remain: (4) The uncertainty about the impact is skewed towards negative surprises. (5) Poorer countries are much more vulnerable than richer ones. A meta-analysis of the impact of weather shocks reveals that studies, which relate economic growth to temperature levels, cannot agree on the sign of the impact whereas studies, which make economic growth a function of temperature change do agree on the sign but differ an order of magnitude in effect size. The former studies posit that climate change has a permanent effect on economic growth, the latter that the effect is transient. The impact on economic growth implied by studies of the impact of climate change is close to the growth impact estimated as a function of weather shocks. The social cost of carbon shows a similar pattern to the total impact estimates, but with more emphasis on the impacts of moderate warming in the near and medium term.
