论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Data Fusion of Total Solar Irradiance Composite Time Series Using 41 Years of Satellite Measurements
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Since the late 1970s, successive satellite missions have been monitoring the sun's activity and recording the total solar irradiance (TSI). Some of these measurements have lasted for more than a decade. In order to obtain a seamless record whose duration exceeds that of the individual instruments, the time series have to be merged. Climate models can be better validated using such long TSI time series which can also help to provide stronger constraints on past climate reconstructions (e.g., back to the Maunder minimum). We propose a 3-step method based on data fusion, including a stochastic noise model to take into account short and long-term correlations. Compared with previous products scaled at the nominal TSI value of 1361 W/m2, the difference is below 0.2 W/m2 in terms of solar minima. Next, we model the frequency spectrum of this 41-year TSI composite time series with a Generalized Gauss-Markov model to help describe an observed flattening at high frequencies. It allows us to fit a linear trend into these TSI time series by joint inversion with the stochastic noise model via a maximum-likelihood estimator. Our results show that the amplitude of such trend is $\sim$ -0.004 +/- 0.004 W/(m2yr) for the period 1980 - 2021. These results are compared with the difference of irradiance values estimated from two consecutive solar minima. We conclude that the trend in these composite time series is mostly an artifact due to the colored noise.