论文标题
加密货币交易网络中的成对和高阶依赖关系
Pairwise and high-order dependencies in the cryptocurrency trading network
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中,我们分析了加密货币市场中信息流的影响。我们首先定义了一个加密货币交易网络,即使用加密货币作为节点和Granger因果关系的网络在其每周日志返回中作为链接作为链接,后来我们分析了其演变。特别是,在参考2020年和2021年时,我们使用成对和高级统计依赖性的加密货币交易网络的对数美元价格回报,分别通过Granger因果关系和O信息来量化。关于前者,我们发现它显示了重要事件的对应关系中的峰值,例如Covid-19-19,大流行湍流或偶尔的突然价格上涨。相应的网络结构相当稳定,在所考虑的时期内的每周时间窗口中,硬币是网络中最具影响力的节点。在对网络的成对描述中,稳定的硬币似乎扮演着边际角色,而转向高阶依赖性,它们出现在最多的协同信息电路中,因此证明它们对高阶效应起着重要作用。关于冗余和协同作用,总交易的时间演变为美元,我们发现它们在2021年第一学期的大量数量似乎触发了加密货币网络中的过渡到更复杂的动力学景观。我们的结果表明,复杂金融系统的成对和高级描述提供了用于加密货币分析的互补信息。
In this paper we analyse the effects of information flows in cryptocurrency markets. We first define a cryptocurrency trading network, i.e. the network made using cryptocurrencies as nodes and the Granger causality among their weekly log returns as links, later we analyse its evolution over time. In particular, with reference to years 2020 and 2021, we study the logarithmic US dollar price returns of the cryptocurrency trading network using both pairwise and high-order statistical dependencies, quantified by Granger causality and O-information, respectively. With reference to the former, we find that it shows peaks in correspondence of important events, like e.g., Covid-19 pandemic turbulence or occasional sudden prices rise. The corresponding network structure is rather stable, across weekly time windows in the period considered and the coins are the most influential nodes in the network. In the pairwise description of the network, stable coins seem to play a marginal role whereas, turning high-order dependencies, they appear in the highest number of synergistic information circuits, thus proving that they play a major role for high order effects. With reference to redundancy and synergy with the time evolution of the total transactions in US dollars, we find that their large volume in the first semester of 2021 seems to have triggered a transition in the cryptocurrency network toward a more complex dynamical landscape. Our results show that pairwise and high-order descriptions of complex financial systems provide complementary information for cryptocurrency analysis.