论文标题
随着时间的流逝，大流行的集体感染以及与疫苗覆盖范围和经济发展的关联
Collective infectivity of the pandemic over time and association with vaccine coverage and economic development
论文作者
论文摘要
本文使用新的和现有的方法来研究整个大流行国家的集体趋势，重点是多元时间序列的繁殖数和疫苗增殖。我们从对感染性的集体性质进行时变的分析开始，在该分析中，我们根据国家 /地区的基础评估了生殖数时间序列的特征和集体幅度。接下来，我们研究了该特征光谱的拓扑，测量了所有时间点之间的偏差，并引入了图形理论方法，以揭示全球感染动力学的明确分区。然后，我们以集体方式将国家的疫苗推出与其GDP和HDI等经济指标进行了比较。我们研究了时变的一致性，并确定这些指标之间存在最大差异的时间点。我们的两个主要发现是该时期后半段的集体感染力大大提高，并且在疫苗覆盖范围和各国的经济/发展指标之间的集体一致性中，凹入（``向下''）模式了。
This paper uses new and existing methods to study collective trends across countries throughout the pandemic, with a focus on the multivariate time series of reproduction numbers and vaccine proliferation. We begin with a time-varying analysis of the collective nature of infectivity, where we evaluate the eigenspectrum and collective magnitude of reproduction number time series on a country-by-country basis. Next, we study the topology of this eigenspectrum, measuring the deviation between all points in time, and introduce a graph-theoretic methodology to reveal a clear partition in global infectivity dynamics. Then, we compare countries' vaccine rollouts with economic indicators such as their GDP and HDI in a collective fashion. We investigate time-varying consistency and determine points in time where there is the greatest discrepancy between these indicators as a whole. Our two primary findings are a considerable increase in collective infectivity in the latter half of the period, and a concave-up (``down then up'') pattern in the collective consistency between vaccine coverage and economic/development indicators across countries.
