论文标题

贝叶斯在概率,tobit,多项式概率和扩展中的结合:审查和新结果

Bayesian conjugacy in probit, tobit, multinomial probit and extensions: A review and new results

论文作者

Anceschi, Niccolò, Fasano, Augusto, Durante, Daniele, Zanella, Giacomo

论文摘要

常规出现在几个字段中的广泛模型可以作为部分或完全离散的高斯线性回归表示。除包括基本的高斯响应设置外,此类还包括概率,多项式概率和TOBIT回归,从而屈服于应用中最广泛的模型家族之一。这种表示的相关性刺激了贝叶斯领域的数十年研究,主要是因为与高斯线性回归不同,这种模型引起的后验分布似乎并不属于已知类别,在常见的高斯阶段下,该系数的系数都不属于该系数。这激发了几种解决后推理的解决方案,以依靠基于抽样的策略或确定性近似值,但是仍然经历了计算和准确性问题,尤其是在高维度中。本文的范围是审查,统一和扩展此类模型的贝叶斯推论和计算的最新进展。为了解决这样的目标,我们证明,这些配方引起的可能性具有共同的分析结构,暗示着与广泛的分布相结合,即统一的偏斜态度(Sun),将高斯人推广到偏斜的上下文中。该结果统一并扩展了分析类中特定模型的最新结合性能,并通过新型的封闭形式表达式(I.I.I.D.来自确切的太阳后代的采样器,以及来自VB和EP的更准确和可扩展的近似。在模拟中说明了这些优势,并有望促进这些核心贝叶斯模型的常规使用,同时提供了一个新颖的框架来研究理论属性并发展未来的扩展。

A broad class of models that routinely appear in several fields can be expressed as partially or fully discretized Gaussian linear regressions. Besides including basic Gaussian response settings, this class also encompasses probit, multinomial probit and tobit regression, among others, thereby yielding to one of the most widely-implemented families of models in applications. The relevance of such representations has stimulated decades of research in the Bayesian field, mostly motivated by the fact that, unlike for Gaussian linear regression, the posterior distribution induced by such models does not seem to belong to a known class, under the commonly-assumed Gaussian priors for the coefficients. This has motivated several solutions for posterior inference relying on sampling-based strategies or on deterministic approximations that, however, still experience computational and accuracy issues, especially in high dimensions. The scope of this article is to review, unify and extend recent advances in Bayesian inference and computation for this class of models. To address such a goal, we prove that the likelihoods induced by these formulations share a common analytical structure that implies conjugacy with a broad class of distributions, namely the unified skew-normals (SUN), that generalize Gaussians to skewed contexts. This result unifies and extends recent conjugacy properties for specific models within the class analyzed, and opens avenues for improved posterior inference, under a broader class of formulations and priors, via novel closed-form expressions, i.i.d. samplers from the exact SUN posteriors, and more accurate and scalable approximations from VB and EP. Such advantages are illustrated in simulations and are expected to facilitate the routine-use of these core Bayesian models, while providing a novel framework to study theoretical properties and develop future extensions.

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