论文标题
两极分化社会中流行病的传播：未接种疫苗的个体聚类的影响
Propagation of epidemics in a polarized society: impact of clustering among unvaccinated individuals
论文作者
论文摘要
对疫苗接种的意见极化可能会对大流行控制产生负面影响。在这项工作中，我们使用基于代理的模拟在具有多类型网络的异质种群中使用基于代理的模拟来量化这种负面影响，这代表了不同类型的社交相互作用。我们表明，与确定性模型预测相比，与意见极化相关的未接种个体的聚类可能会导致大流行的演变显着差异。在我们现实的基线情况下，这些差异是有效繁殖数量增加了33％，峰值感染增加了157％，最终累积攻击率增加了30％。
Polarization of opinions about vaccination can have a negative impact on pandemic control. In this work we quantify this negative impact for the transmission of COVID-19, using an agent based simulation in an heterogeneous population with multi-type networks, representing different types of social interactions. We show that the clustering of unvaccinated individuals, associated with polarization of opinion, can lead to significant differences in the evolution of the pandemic compared to deterministic model predictions. Under our realistic baseline scenario these differences are a 33pc increase of the effective reproduction number, a 157pc increase of infections at the peak and a 30pc increase in the final cumulative attack rate.
