论文标题

在欧洲背景下,在德国取得100%Energiewende的集中和分散方法:基于模型的发电,网络和存储投资的分析

Centralized and decentral approaches to succeed the 100% energiewende in Germany in the European context: A model-based analysis of generation, network, and storage investments

论文作者

Kendziorski, Mario, Göke, Leonard, von Hirschhausen, Christian, Kemfert, Claudia, Zozmann, Elmar

论文摘要

在本文中,我们探索了在欧洲背景下取代德国能源的集中和分散方法。我们使用Anymod框架来基于技术经济优化的基于未来可再生能源的欧洲能源系统进行建模,即对给定需求的成本最小化,包括投资和随后的派遣能力。该模型包括针对欧洲国家的29个地区,德国的38个NUTS-2地区。首先,优化了欧洲一级的整个能源系统。基于这些结果,对德国地区的电力系统进行了优化,以实现大量的区域细节以分析空间效应。该模型允许在部署大量风的风向中的风格化中心方案与使用现有网格的分散场景之间进行比较,从而更多地依赖于本地能力。结果表明,这两种情况的第二次优化的成本大致相同:中心场景的特征是网络扩展,以便从风中运输电力,而分散场景则导致更高的光伏和电池部署到更接近能源需求的区域。具有较高能源效率和较低需求预测的方案导致投资需求大幅减少,并导致其不同的本地化。

In this paper, we explore centralized and more decentral approaches to succeed the energiewende in Germany, in the European context. We use the AnyMOD framework to model a future renewable-based European energy system, based on a techno-economic optimization, i.e. cost minimization with given demand, including both investment and the subsequent dispatch of capacity. The model includes 29 regions for European countries, and 38 NUTS-2 regions in Germany. First the entire energy system on the European level is optimized. Based on these results, the electricity system for the German regions is optimized to achieve great regional detail to analyse spatial effects. The model allows a comparison between a stylized central scenario with high amounts of wind offshore deployed, and a decentral scenario using mainly the existing grid, and thus relying more on local capacities. The results reveal that the cost for the second optimization of these two scenarios are about the same: The central scenario is characterized by network expansion in order to transport the electricity from the wind offshore sites, whereas the decentral scenario leads to more photovoltaic and battery deployment closer to the areas with a high demand for energy. A scenarios with higher energy efficiency and lower demand projections lead to a significant reduction of investment requirements, and to different localizations thereof.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源