论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

Revisit the periodicity of SGR J1935+2154 bursts with updated sample

论文作者

Xie, Sheng-Lun, Cai, Ce, Xiong, Shao-Lin, Yu, Yun-Wei, Zhang, Yan-Qiu, Lin, Lin, Zhang, Zhen, Xue, Wang-Chen, Liu, Jia-Cong, Zhao, Yi, Xiao, Shuo, Zheng, Chao, Yi, Qi-Bin, Zhang, Peng, Wang, Ping, Qiao, Rui, Peng, Wen-Xi, Huang, Yue, Ma, Xiang, Zhao, Xiao-Yun, Li, Xiao-Bo, Zheng, Shi-Jie, Ge, Ming-Yu, Li, Cheng-Kui, Li, Xin-Qiao, Wen, Xiang-Yang, Zhang, Fan, Song, Li-Ming, Zhang, Shuang-Nan, Guo, Zhi-Wei, Zhang, Xiao-Lu, Zhao, Guo-Ying, Li, Chao-Yang

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

Since FRB 200428 has been found to be associated with an X-ray burst from the Galactic magnetar SGR J1935+2154, it is interesting to explore whether the magnetar bursts also follow the similar active periodic behavior as some repeating FRBs. Previous studies show that there is possible period about 230 day in SGR J1935+2154 bursts. Here, we collected an updated burst sample from SGR J1935+2154, including all bursts reported by Fermi/GBM and GECAM till 2022 January. We also developed a targeted search pipeline to reveal more bursts from SGR J1935+2154 in the Fermi/GBM data from 2008 August to 2014 December (i.e. before the first burst detected by Swift/BAT). With this burst sample, we re-analyzed the possible periodicity of SGR J1935+2154 bursts using the Period Folding and Lomb-Scargle Periodogram methods. Our results show that the periodicity $\sim$238 day reported in literature is probably fake and the observation effects may introduce false periods (i.e. 55 day) according to simulation tests. We find that, for the current burst sample, the most probable period is 126.88$\pm$2.05 day, which could be interpreted as the precession of the magnetar. However, we note that the whole burst history is very complicated and difficult to be perfectly accommodated with any period reported thus far, therefore more monitoring observations of SGR J1935+2154 are required to test any periodicity hypothesis.

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