论文标题
通过贝叶斯优化调整的回归网络预测外汇率
Forecasting foreign exchange rates with regression networks tuned by Bayesian optimization
论文作者
论文摘要
本文涉及多步财务时间序列预测外汇(FX)利率的问题。为了解决这个问题,我们引入了一个称为regpred Net的回归网络。预测的汇率被视为随机过程。假定它遵循布朗运动的概括,并以时间依赖性系数为概述的均值逆转过程(OU)过程。使用过去观察到的输入时间序列的值,这些系数可以通过网络上半年(REG)的单元格在线回归。回归的系数仅取决于 - 但非常敏感 - 由全球优化程序设置的少数超参数需要,贝叶斯优化是一种足够的启发式启发式。由于其多层体系结构,回归网络(PRED)的后半部分可以为OU过程系数投影时间相关的值,并生成时间序列的逼真的轨迹。预测可以轻松地以通过蒙特卡洛模拟获得的平均值估计的预期值的形式得出。评估了几种最重要的FX利率,例如EUR/USD,EUR/CNY和EUR/GBP,评估了100天视野中的预测准确性。我们的实验结果表明,在测量测量绝对误差(RMSE)的指标和实际值之间的相关性方面,恢复净的净净大量优于ARMA,ARIMA,LSTMS和自动编码器LSTM模型(Pearson R,Pearson R,R-Squared,MDA)。与Black-Box深度学习模型(例如LSTM)相比,regpred Net具有更好的解释性,更简单的结构和更少的参数。
The article is concerned with the problem of multi-step financial time series forecasting of Foreign Exchange (FX) rates. To address this problem, we introduce a regression network termed RegPred Net. The exchange rate to forecast is treated as a stochastic process. It is assumed to follow a generalization of Brownian motion and the mean-reverting process referred to as the generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, with time-dependent coefficients. Using past observed values of the input time series, these coefficients can be regressed online by the cells of the first half of the network (Reg). The regressed coefficients depend only on - but are very sensitive to - a small number of hyperparameters required to be set by a global optimization procedure for which, Bayesian optimization is an adequate heuristic. Thanks to its multi-layered architecture, the second half of the regression network (Pred) can project time-dependent values for the OU process coefficients and generate realistic trajectories of the time series. Predictions can be easily derived in the form of expected values estimated by averaging values obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. The forecasting accuracy on a 100 days horizon is evaluated for several of the most important FX rates such as EUR/USD, EUR/CNY, and EUR/GBP. Our experimental results show that the RegPred Net significantly outperforms ARMA, ARIMA, LSTMs, and Autoencoder-LSTM models in terms of metrics measuring the absolute error (RMSE) and correlation between predicted and actual values (Pearson R, R-squared, MDA). Compared to black-box deep learning models such as LSTM, RegPred Net has better interpretability, simpler structure, and fewer parameters.