论文标题
关于波兰的COVID-19数据的SIRD流行病学模型的自动校准
On automatic calibration of the SIRD epidemiological model for COVID-19 data in Poland
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一种新的方法，用于估计修改后的SIRD模型（易感性，感染，恢复和死者的缩写）的流行病学参数，并对SARS-COV-2病毒扩散进行短期预测。我们主要关注预测死者的数量。该程序在报告的波兰数据上进行了测试。在一些短时间间隔内，我们进行了数值测试，研究了所提出的方法中参数估计值的稳定性。数值实验证实了该方法的短期预测（长达2周）和稳定性的有效性。为了提高其性能（即计算时间），在计算中使用了GPU架构。
We propose a novel methodology for estimating the epidemiological parameters of a modified SIRD model (acronym of Susceptible, Infected, Recovered and Deceased individuals) and perform a short-term forecast of SARS-CoV-2 virus spread. We mainly focus on forecasting number of deceased. The procedure was tested on reported data for Poland. For some short-time intervals we performed numerical test investigating stability of parameter estimates in the proposed approach. Numerical experiments confirm the effectiveness of short-term forecasts (up to 2 weeks) and stability of the method. To improve their performance (i.e. computation time) GPU architecture was used in computations.
