论文标题
人类财富演化是由减速优化过程所支撑的加速扩张
Human wealth evolution is an accelerating expansion underpinned by a decelerating optimization process
论文作者
论文摘要
优化和扩展是复杂系统分阶段演化的两种模式,在这些模式下,宏观可观察物分别以降低,增加的速率变化。 进化扩展的一个主要例子,国内生产总值(GDP)时间序列量规经济活动在不断变化的社会结构中,其增长的加速趋势可能反映了人类相互作用驱动变化的大量增加。我们展示了通过替换“壁钟时间” $ t $作为独立变量的优化和扩展如何通过人类互动强度$τ$替换为独立变量。 我们对西欧三个地区的八个世纪的年度GDP数据的分析分为两个步骤进行。首先,使用Monte Carlo算法将GDP数据拟合到一个分段连续函数,该函数包括一系列带有不同指数的指数。 在第二步中,绘制了GDP数据与$τ$绘制,并显示出两种对数制度,两者都会减速,它们由Power-Law交叉期加入。 我们将第一个政权的终结与第二个政权的开始联系起来,随着工业革命的黎明以及新的运输,通信和生产技术的社会影响,这些技术在第一次世界大战后广泛使用。 我们得出的结论是,以$τ$为单位的财富演变是一个减速过程,其标志是记录动态优化的标志。
Optimization and expansion are two modes of staged evolution of complex systems where macroscopic observables change at a decreasing, respectively increasing, rate. A prime example of evolutionary expansion, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) time series gauge economic activities in changing societal structures,} and the accelerating trend of their growth probably reflects a manyfold increase of the human interactions that drive change. We show how optimization and expansion can coexist by replacing `wall clock time' $t$ as independent variable with a measure of human interactions intensity $τ$. Our analysis of eight centuries of yearly GDP data from three regions of Western Europe is carried out in two steps. First, a Monte Carlo algorithm is used to fit the GDP data to a piecewise continuous function comprising a sequence of exponentials with different exponents. In a second step, GDP data are plotted vs. $τ$ and shown to display two logarithmic regimes, both decelerating, that are joined by a power-law cross-over period. We connect the end of the first regime and the beginning of the second with the dawn of the Industrial Revolution and the societal impact of new transport, communication and production technologies that became widely available after World War I. We conclude that wealth evolution in terms of $τ$ is a decelerating process with the hallmarks of record dynamics optimization.