论文标题
通过使用西班牙省的官方数据来衡量卷烟销售的异常：是否只有跨国烟草公司（TTC）使用的空包调查（EPS）检测到的异常情况？
Measuring anomalies in cigarette sales by using official data from Spanish provinces: Are there only the anomalies detected by the Empty Pack Surveys (EPS) used by Transnational Tobacco Companies (TTCs)?
论文作者
论文摘要
有文献质疑跨国烟草公司（TTC）委托研究非法烟草贸易的研究的真实性。此外，有一些研究表明，TTC订购的空包调查（EPS）超大。这项研究的新颖性是，除了检测EPS中分析的异常外，还有一些省份的香烟销售高于合理价值，而TTC忽略了这一点。这项研究首先同时分析了在47个西班牙省中每个省份中建立的EPSS。其次，在衡量销售额超过预期价值的各省中观察到的异常。为了实现论文的目标，使用了有关人均价格，价格和GDP的省级数据。这些数据是通过广泛用于检测其他领域异常的机器学习技术建模的。结果表明，观察到低于合理价值的省份（如EPS所检测到的）呈现出明确的地理模式。此外，如先前的文献所示，西班牙EPS提供的值略有尺寸。最后，有一些地区与其他国家接壤或具有较高的旅游影响力，其中观察到的销售高于预期价值。
There is literature that questions the veracity of the studies commissioned by the transnational tobacco companies (TTC) to measure the illicit tobacco trade. Furthermore, there are studies that indicate that the Empty Pack Surveys (EPS) ordered by the TTCs are oversized. The novelty of this study is that, in addition to detecting the anomalies analyzed in the EPSs, there are provinces in which cigarette sales are higher than reasonable values, something that the TTCs ignore. This study analyzed simultaneously, firstly, if the EPSs established in each of the 47 Spanish provinces were fulfilled. Second, anomalies observed in provinces where sales exceed expected values are measured. To achieve the objective of the paper, provincial data on cigarette sales, price and GDP per capita are used. These data are modeled with machine learning techniques widely used to detect anomalies in other areas. The results reveal that the provinces in which sales below reasonable values are observed (as detected by the EPSs) present a clear geographical pattern. Furthermore, the values provided by the EPSs in Spain, as indicated in the previous literature, are slightly oversized. Finally, there are regions bordering other countries or with a high tourist influence in which the observed sales are higher than the expected values.
