论文标题
Bettors对匹配动态的反应 - 游戏中博彩的证据
Bettors' reaction to match dynamics -- Evidence from in-game betting
论文作者
论文摘要
在很大程度上尚不清楚Bettors在多大程度上更新了他们对比赛期间动态的竞争团队的实力和形式的先前假设。这不仅是从心理学的角度来看的，而且由于（客观的）结果概率以及注计人的行为，也应以现场赔率的定价来驱动。使用状态空间模型（SSM）来说明投注市场动态发展的潜在情绪，我们分析了比赛期间放置的赌注上的独特高频数据集。我们发现，现场表现市场中的赌注既由感知的赛前力量和游戏中的力量来驱动，而后者通过估计概率（VAEP）方法来衡量。两种效果在整个比赛过程中都有所不同。
It is still largely unclear to what extent bettors update their prior assumptions about the strength and form of competing teams considering the dynamics during the match. This is of interest not only from the psychological perspective, but also as the pricing of live odds ideally should be driven both by the (objective) outcome probabilities and also the bettors' behaviour. Using state-space models (SSMs) to account for the dynamically evolving latent sentiment of the betting market, we analyse a unique high-frequency data set on stakes placed during the match. We find that stakes in the live-betting market are driven both by perceived pre-game strength and by in-game strength, the latter as measured by the Valuing Actions by Estimating Probabilities (VAEP) approach. Both effects vary over the course of the match.
