论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Stochastic dynamics of social patch foraging decisions
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Animals typically forage in groups. Social foraging can help animals avoid predation and decrease their uncertainty about the richness of food resources. Despite this, theoretical mechanistic models of patch foraging have overwhelmingly focused on the behavior of single foragers. In this study, we develop a mechanistic model describing the behavior of individuals foraging together and departing food patches following an evidence accumulation process. Each individual's belief about patch quality is represented by a stochastically accumulating variable coupled to others' belief, representing the transfer of information. We consider a cohesive group, and model information sharing as either intermittent pulsatile coupling (communicate decision to leave) or continuous diffusive coupling (communicate online belief). Foraging efficiency under pulsatile coupling has a stronger dependence on the coupling strength parameter compared to diffusive. Despite employing minimal information transfer, pulsatile coupling can still provide similar or higher foraging efficiency compared to diffusive coupling. Conversely, diffusive coupling is more robust to parameter detuning and performs better when individuals have heterogeneous departure criteria and social information weighting. Efficiency is measured by a reward rate function that balances the amount of energy accumulated against the time spent in a patch, computed by solving an ordered first passage time problem for the patch departures of each individual. Using synthetic data we show that we can distinguish between the two modes of communication and identify the model parameters. Our model establishes a social patch foraging framework to parse and identify deliberative decision strategies, to distinguish different forms of social communication, and to allow model fitting to real world animal behavior data.