论文标题
电力消耗预测,以预先分配时间关税
Electricity Consumption Forecasting for Out-of-distribution Time-of-Use Tariffs
论文作者
论文摘要
在电力市场中,零售商或经纪人希望通过将关税概况分配给最终消费者来最大化利润。这种需求响应管理的目标之一是激励消费者调整其消费,以便将批发市场的总体电力采购最小化,例如希望在高峰时段,当批发市场的经纪人的采购成本很高时,消费者消耗较少。我们考虑了一种贪婪的解决方案,以通过最佳关税概况分配来最大化经纪人的总体利润。这种往返都需要为所有关税配置文件的每个用户提供预测用电。与标准预测问题相比,由于以下原因,这个预测问题具有挑战性:i。每小时关税的可能组合数量很高,零售商过去可能没有考虑所有组合,从而导致过去尝试过的一系列偏见的关税概况,ii。过去分配给每个用户的配置文件通常基于某些策略。这些原因违反了标准I.I.D.假设,因为有必要评估现有客户的新关税配置文件,并且历史数据偏向于过去用于关税分配的政策。在这项工作中,我们考虑了在这些条件下预测和优化的几种情况。我们通过比较跨小时和转移负载的关税来利用消费者对可变关税率的响应的基本结构,并在设计基于深神经网络的架构的设计中提出合适的电感偏见,以预测在这种情况下。更具体地说,我们利用了注意力机制和置换量表网络,这些网络允许关税配置文件的理想处理来学习对数据中偏见不敏感的关税表示形式,并且仍然可以代表任务。
In electricity markets, retailers or brokers want to maximize profits by allocating tariff profiles to end consumers. One of the objectives of such demand response management is to incentivize the consumers to adjust their consumption so that the overall electricity procurement in the wholesale markets is minimized, e.g. it is desirable that consumers consume less during peak hours when cost of procurement for brokers from wholesale markets are high. We consider a greedy solution to maximize the overall profit for brokers by optimal tariff profile allocation. This in-turn requires forecasting electricity consumption for each user for all tariff profiles. This forecasting problem is challenging compared to standard forecasting problems due to following reasons: i. the number of possible combinations of hourly tariffs is high and retailers may not have considered all combinations in the past resulting in a biased set of tariff profiles tried in the past, ii. the profiles allocated in the past to each user is typically based on certain policy. These reasons violate the standard i.i.d. assumptions, as there is a need to evaluate new tariff profiles on existing customers and historical data is biased by the policies used in the past for tariff allocation. In this work, we consider several scenarios for forecasting and optimization under these conditions. We leverage the underlying structure of how consumers respond to variable tariff rates by comparing tariffs across hours and shifting loads, and propose suitable inductive biases in the design of deep neural network based architectures for forecasting under such scenarios. More specifically, we leverage attention mechanisms and permutation equivariant networks that allow desirable processing of tariff profiles to learn tariff representations that are insensitive to the biases in the data and still representative of the task.