论文标题
基于案例的推理对战略网站上的罕见事件预测
Case-based reasoning for rare events prediction on strategic sites
论文作者
论文摘要
卫星图像现在已在国防部门广泛用于监视感兴趣的位置。尽管越来越多的数据可以实现模式识别并因此预测，但手动携带此任务几乎是不可行的。我们在此提出了一种基于外壳的推理方法，用于自动预测战略网站上罕见事件的方法。这种方法允许直接合并专家知识，并适用于不规则的时间序列和小型数据集。实验是使用真实卫星图像在两个用例上进行的：潜艇到达和从海军基地出发的预测，以及在两个太空基地上对即将发生的火箭发射的预测。所提出的方法在这些具有挑战性的应用程序上明显优于随机选择的参考案例，显示出其强大的潜力。
Satellite imagery is now widely used in the defense sector for monitoring locations of interest. Although the increasing amount of data enables pattern identification and therefore prediction, carrying this task manually is hardly feasible. We hereby propose a cased-based reasoning approach for automatic prediction of rare events on strategic sites. This method allows direct incorporation of expert knowledge, and is adapted to irregular time series and small-size datasets. Experiments are carried out on two use-cases using real satellite images: the prediction of submarines arrivals and departures from a naval base, and the forecasting of imminent rocket launches on two space bases. The proposed method significantly outperforms a random selection of reference cases on these challenging applications, showing its strong potential.
