论文标题
高生殖数量的最佳疫苗接种：急剧过渡和违反直觉分配
Optimal vaccination at high reproductive numbers: sharp transitions and counter-intuitive allocations
论文作者
论文摘要
在异质人群的不同部分之间进行疫苗分配的优化对于增强疫苗接种运动在减轻流行病负担方面的有效性很重要。直觉上，似乎旨在最大程度地减少感染的分配应该优先考虑那些被感染和感染他人的风险最高的人。疫苗接种理论（例如，疫苗接种运动旨在达到牛群的免疫力）得到了很好的支持。但是，在这项工作中，我们表明，对于提供部分保护的疫苗（泄漏疫苗），对于足够高的基本繁殖数量值，直觉被推翻了：最小化感染数量的最佳分配优先级优先考虑那些可能被感染的人的疫苗接种。此外，我们表明这种现象发生在与SARS-COV-19的当前循环菌株相关的一系列基本繁殖数。这项工作结合了数值研究，一般模型的渐近分析以及在简单的两组模型中完成的数学分析。结果表明，在管理疫苗接种运动中，具有高传递性的感染活动的重要考虑因素。
Optimization of vaccine allocations among different segments of a heterogeneous population is important for enhancing the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns in reducing the burden of epidemics. Intuitively, it would seem that allocations designed to minimize infections should prioritize those with the highest risk of being infected and infecting others. This prescription is well supported by vaccination theory, e.g., when the vaccination campaign aims to reach herd immunity. In this work, we show, however, that for vaccines providing partial protection (leaky vaccines) and for sufficiently high values of the basic reproduction number, intuition is overturned: the optimal allocation for minimizing the number of infections prioritizes the vaccination of those who are least likely to be infected. Furthermore, we show that this phenomenon occurs at a range of basic reproduction numbers relevant for the currently circulating strains of SARS-CoV-19. The work combines numerical investigations, asymptotic analysis for a general model, and complete mathematical analysis in a simple two-group model. The results point to important considerations in managing vaccination campaigns for infections with high transmissibility.
