论文标题
COVID-19和流感联合预测美国使用互联网搜索信息
COVID-19 and Influenza Joint Forecasts Using Internet Search Information in the United States
论文作者
论文摘要
随着Covid-19的大流行的进展,案件和Covid-19死亡的案件增加可能会发生严重的流感季节,从而造成了医疗保健资源和公共安全的严重负担。 Twindemic的结果可能是同一人同时“ Flurona”的两种不同感染的混合物。承认“ Flurona”的提高趋势,预测流感爆发和及时及以往的19次波浪更加紧迫,因为对Twindemic AIDS卫生组织的准确联合实时跟踪和政策制定者进行了充分的准备和决策。在当前的大流行中,最先进的流感和Covid-19预测模型具有宝贵的领域信息,但在当前复杂的疾病动态下面临缺点,例如症状和公共医疗保健寻求两种疾病的模式。受到流感和Covid-19活动之间的内部连接的启发,我们提出了Argox-orgos-endlemble,这使我们能够将历史流感和Covid-19疾病预测模型结合到处理一个新的集合框架,以处理流感和共同存在的新场景。我们的框架能够通过赢家全方位的合奏时尚强调从与共同相关或流感信号中学习。此外,我们的实验表明,我们的方法成功地将过去的流感预测模型适应当前的大流行,同时通过稳步优于替代基准方法,并与公共可用模型保持竞争力,从而改善了先前的Covid-19预测模型。
As COVID-19 pandemic progresses, severe flu seasons may happen alongside an increase in cases in cases and death of COVID-19, causing severe burdens on health care resources and public safety. A consequence of a twindemic may be a mixture of two different infections in the same person at the same time, "flurona". Admist the raising trend of "flurona", forecasting both influenza outbreaks and COVID-19 waves in a timely manner is more urgent than ever, as accurate joint real-time tracking of the twindemic aids health organizations and policymakers in adequate preparation and decision making. Under the current pandemic, state-of-art influenza and COVID-19 forecasting models carry valuable domain information but face shortcomings under current complex disease dynamics, such as similarities in symptoms and public healthcare seeking patterns of the two diseases. Inspired by the inner-connection between influenza and COVID-19 activities, we propose ARGOX-Joint-Ensemble which allows us to combine historical influenza and COVID-19 disease forecasting models to a new ensemble framework that handles scenarios where flu and COVID co-exist. Our framework is able to emphasize learning from COVID-related or influenza signals, through a winner-takes-all ensemble fashion. Moreover, our experiments demonstrate that our approach is successful in adapting past influenza forecasting models to the current pandemic, while improving upon previous COVID-19 forecasting models, by steadily outperforming alternative benchmark methods, and remaining competitive with publicly available models.