论文标题
欧洲电力衍生品市场的时间零效率
Time-zero Efficiency of European Power Derivatives Markets
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究电衍生物市场的时间零效率。按时间零效率来看,效率是一系列具有相同基础资产的衍生品合同的价格序列,但与成熟度不同,这意味着价格符合一组效率条件,这些效率条件可以防止有利可图的Time-Zero套利机会。我们研究基于一个价格的法律和基于价格差异和无契机违规行为的交易规则的统计检验是否有助于评估时间零效率。我们将测试和交易规则应用于三个欧洲电力市场的每日数据:德国,法国和西班牙。就德国市场而言,考虑到流动性可用性和交易成本后,结果与时间零效率并不矛盾。但是,在法国和西班牙市场的情况下,流动性和代表性的局限性是阻止明确结论的挑战。法国和西班牙市场的流动性应通过使用定价和营销激励措施来改善。这些激励措施应吸引更多的参与者进入电力衍生品交流,并鼓励他们在交换机中解决OTC交易。应促进每种参与者的价格,数量和开放利息的统计数据。
We study time-zero efficiency of electricity derivatives markets. By time-zero efficiency is meant a sequence of prices of derivatives contracts having the same underlying asset but different times to maturity which implies that prices comply with a set of efficiency conditions that prevent profitable time-zero arbitrage opportunities. We investigate whether statistical tests, based on the law of one price, and trading rules, based on price differentials and no-arbitrage violations, are useful for assessing time-zero efficiency. We apply tests and trading rules to daily data of three European power markets: Germany, France and Spain. In the case of the German market, after considering liquidity availability and transaction costs, results are not inconsistent with time-zero efficiency. However, in the case of the French and Spanish markets, limitations in liquidity and representativeness are challenges that prevent definite conclusions. Liquidity in French and Spanish markets should improve by using pricing and marketing incentives. These incentives should attract more participants into the electricity derivatives exchanges and should encourage them to settle OTC trades in clearinghouses. Publication of statistics on prices, volumes and open interest per type of participant should be promoted.