论文标题

通过优化基于代理的模型调查的投资策略,金融市场的不稳定

Instability of financial markets by optimizing investment strategies investigated by an agent-based model

论文作者

Mizuta, Takanobu, Yagi, Isao, Takashima, Kosei

论文摘要

大多数财务研究都是根据几个假设讨论的,例如,投资者合理地优化了其投资策略。但是,这些假设本身有时会受到批评。市场影响,投资者的交易可以影响和改变市场价格,从而使优化变得不可能。在这项研究中,我们通过添加搜索一个优化参数的技术分析策略代理来建立一个人工市场模型,以在整个模拟中运行到先前的模型,并研究了投资者是否无法准确估算其优化的市场影响会导致优化不稳定。在我们的结果中,投资策略的参数从未融合到特定价值,而是继续变化。这意味着,即使所有其他交易者都是固定的,也只有一个投资者将使用对其策略进行反测试来优化其战略,从而导致市场价格的时间演变变得不稳定。优化不稳定性比“市场价格的非平衡”高。因此,具有这种不稳定参数的投资策略所产生的市场价格的时间演变不太可能被预测,并且具有方程式制定的稳定法律。这种性质使我们怀疑金融市场包括自然统一的原则,并表明了建立方程模型的困难,以解释价格的时间演变。

Most finance studies are discussed on the basis of several hypotheses, for example, investors rationally optimize their investment strategies. However, the hypotheses themselves are sometimes criticized. Market impacts, where trades of investors can impact and change market prices, making optimization impossible. In this study, we built an artificial market model by adding technical analysis strategy agents searching one optimized parameter to a whole simulation run to the prior model and investigated whether investors' inability to accurately estimate market impacts in their optimizations leads to optimization instability. In our results, the parameter of investment strategy never converged to a specific value but continued to change. This means that even if all other traders are fixed, only one investor will use backtesting to optimize his/her strategy, which leads to the time evolution of market prices becoming unstable. Optimization instability is one level higher than "non-equilibrium of market prices." Therefore, the time evolution of market prices produced by investment strategies having such unstable parameters is highly unlikely to be predicted and have stable laws written by equations. This nature makes us suspect that financial markets include the principle of natural uniformity and indicates the difficulty of building an equation model explaining the time evolution of prices.

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