论文标题
随机流行病学模型：在墨西哥建模SARS-COV-2
Stochastic epidemiological model: Modeling the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in Mexico
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们通过引入由第一原理构建的新的随机近似构建的SAR-COV-2在墨西哥建模重量样时间依赖性函数。重量功能有助于将时间依赖性引入新的感染的平均数量，如我们所示，可以从经验数据中提取此信息，从而给予模型自隔离，并提供了一个工具来研究有关流行病学动力学编码的周期性模式的信息
In this paper we model the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico by introducing a new stochastic approximation constructed from first principles, structured on the basis of a Latent-Infectious- (Recovered or Deceased) (LI(RD)) compartmental approximation, where the number of new infected individuals caused by a single infectious individual per unit time (a day), is a random variable of a Poisson distribution and whose parameter is modulated through a weight-like time-dependent function. The weight function serves to introduce a time dependence to the average number of new infections and as we will show, this information can be extracted from empirical data, giving to the model self-consistency and provides a tool to study information about periodic patterns encoded in the epidemiological dynamics
